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The #1 Dangerous Habit That Silently Destroys Your Future Potential

NEXTletter is your practice for shaping what’s next. More than a newsletter, it’s a space to pause, reflect, and experiment. Every other Friday, you’ll get one question, two perspectives, and one experiment — to help you create the future you most want to live in.

Author

Frederik Pferdt
November 21, 2025

Prefer to listen 📻 > click here.

Dear Future Friends,

A colleague of mine is a respected professor. Bestselling author. Millions of followers. A brilliant thinker whose certainty can fill an entire room. He loves making predictions about what will happen next. Markets. Elections. World events. Even the direction of cultural shifts.

Over the years he has confidently told me what to buy, what to avoid, and what choices were pointless because, in his view, the outcomes were already decided. If I had listened to him, I would have invested heavily in a stock that later collapsed. I would have chosen renting over buying one of the homes that shaped our family. And I would have skipped an election because he believed the result was predetermined.

He is smart. He is successful. But had I followed his predictions, the shape of my life today would look very different. And not in a good way.

It reminded me of the extraordinary twenty-year study by psychologist Philip Tetlock. After analyzing twenty-eight thousand expert forecasts, he discovered that most predictions performed no better than chance. A fifty-fifty coin toss. Even more surprising, the most famous and confident experts tended to be the least accurate.

His summary remains unforgettable: “The average expert was roughly as accurate as a dart throwing chimpanzee.”

This does not mean experts are not valuable. It simply reveals the truth we forget most often. Predictions are fragile. Certainty is seductive. And both can quietly take your future out of your hands.

Here is your weekly 1 2 1.

ONE QUESTION

What future do you want to create for yourself, instead of waiting for someone else to predict it?

Use FUTUREREADY as your code and get 50% off our online course “Your 8 Days Future-Ready Mindstate Training” here, Future Creator!

You can also share the code once with someone you love or care about and who you think might need it. Just forward the link or the email.

TWO PERSPECTIVES

1️⃣  Predictions cost us possibility.

This is the external cost.
Every prediction we internalize narrows the field of what we believe is possible. It subtly influences the paths we consider worth exploring. Predictions create mental blinders. They turn our attention toward a single expected outcome and away from countless unexpected opportunities.

Once a prediction feels true, we stop scanning the horizon. We stop noticing signals that contradict it. We stop experimenting because we assume the story has already been written. This is how entire futures go unseen. Not because they were impossible but because we were not looking for them.

The danger is not that predictions are wrong. The danger is that they keep us from imagining alternatives.

2️⃣ Our brains choose comfort over creativity.

This is the internal cost.
Neurologically, predictions soothe us. They reduce anxiety. They offer the illusion of control. That momentary feeling of safety produces dopamine, which reinforces the habit of seeking more predictions.

But there is a trade-off.
Comfort reduces cognitive flexibility.
Certainty quiets curiosity.
The search for predictability suppresses the mindstates that help us design better futures. Openness. Experimentation. Wonder.

Your brain cannot be in certainty mode and creation mode at the same time.
Every time we choose prediction for comfort, we sacrifice imagination for safety.

ONE EXPERIMENT

Try a one week prediction detox.
Not as a rejection of information, but as a reclamation of agency.

For seven days, avoid all content that claims to know what will happen next.
No forecasts. No market predictions. No political outcomes. No trend charts. No horoscopes. No algorithmic guesswork.

Here is your replacement ritual.

Every time you feel the urge to look for a prediction, complete these three prompts instead:

  1. One thing I am curious about today.

  2. One small experiment I could run this week.

  3. One conversation I could initiate with someone who sees the world differently.

This is the scaffold that shifts you from consuming the future to creating it.

Here is the paradox, and I want to name it openly. I cannot predict what you will discover this week. I cannot predict what ideas will open or what paths will become visible.

But I can promise this: The moment you reclaim your attention, you begin shaping the future you want. Not by waiting for certainty, but by practicing possibility.

At the end of the week, look at your list. It will not show predictions. It will show choices.
And those choices are the seeds of your future.

1:1 Future Being Coaching

If you’re ready to not just travel to places - but travel into the next version of yourself - my Future Being Coaching is for you. In this 1:1 program, we explore who you want to become, uncover the inner and outer blocks keeping you from that future, and design concrete steps so you can live it now. It’s for people who don’t want to wait for change to happen - they want to shape it.

On The Podcast

Last week on my podcast, The Future Is HOW, I talked with two people who understand the art of beginning better than almost anyone. Tessa Forshaw from Harvard and my longtime Stanford colleague Rich Braden are both world class teachers of innovation and creativity. In the episode, I shared a story from my time at Google, where I once ran one of the largest rock paper scissors competitions in the company. It was not just for fun. It was a way to show thousands of people a simple truth.

Innovation does not start with certainty.
It starts with a small, playful move.
A first “ish.”

Together with Tessa and Rich, we explored why hesitation is not a flaw but a signal. We talked about how exploration creates clarity, how AI can become a true creative partner, and why “ish ness” is often the missing piece between having an idea and actually starting. We ended with a five question Mindstate Moment that listeners can try immediately.

If you have ever felt stuck between a good idea and your first step, this episode might shift something for you.

Listen here or simply search for "The Future Is HOW" wherever you listen.

With future love,
Frederik

P.S.:

Use FUTUREREADY as your code and get 50% off our online course “Your 8 Days Future-Ready Mindstate Training” here, Future Creator! You can also share it once with someone you love or care about and who you think might need it. Just forward the link or the email.